With the trade done and teams getting into training camp, the offseason still has plenty of surprises left. I'm taking a swing at some trades I think could benefit the Patriots well and others that I believe could hurt them.
Make: Julio Jones for N’Keal Harry, 2nd or 3rd 2022 Pick Probably the best hypothetical trade I’ve seen is trading away former 1st round pick N’Keal Harry along with a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Falcons would get younger at wideout, free up some cap space, and have more day 2 picks. The Patriots have the room to take on Jones’ contract and it would be a major plus for young QB Mac Jones to work with one of the best WRs. Break: Julio Jones for 1st Round or multiple day 2 picks Reports say the Falcons are asking for A LOT for Julio, which to be fair, it is Julio. But we aren’t trading for Prime Julio, we are trading for tail end of career Julio. Giving up anything higher than a 2nd round pick seems like you’d be throwing away a 1st for two years of Julio. In the spot the Patriots are in, they need to conserve their first rounders. Make: Sony Michel for 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round 2022 pick/ WR2 or WR3/ or multiple day 3 picks Drafting Stevenson along with resigning White, has made Michel expendable. We have plenty of depth at the RB position, which means we should ship off Michel for a day 2 pick, multiple day 3 picks, or a solid wide receiver. Michel offers plenty of upside, and could flourish within the right skin, the Patriots just don’t need him with the talent they have. Break: Trading away Jarrett Stidham I saw some rumors going around that Stidham might be included in a trade package for Jones. Even if he isn’t, getting rid of him is not the smart move with a meek QB position. Having Newton, Jones, and Stidham provides depth and competition for the starting gig. This will allow them to push each other to be better, take it away and then more pressure falls on Newton and possibly Jones to succeed. Besides, Hoyer is just a QB coach that is a player. Make: Stephon Gilmore for 1st, 2nd round 2022 pick AND WR2,WR3/CB3,CB4 The fact that we haven’t traded Gilmore yet surprises me. The 2019 Defensive Player of the Year appears to have gas left in the tank, and we can market him as such. This should hopefully generate interest for high end picks and some decent players. Getting a corner to develop would be nice, but also getting a reliable wideout could prove beneficial. Either way we need to get some picks out of Gilmore. Break: Trading for Jimmy G Big No here, as much as some Patriots fans want him back. We drafted Jones for a reason, now it’s time to put it to the test. It would be a waste of whatever we give up for him, whether he plays or not. Unless Jimmy G has another super bowl run in his pocket, he is not our guy.
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The Patriots are in, what I think, is “Reloading” mode. The phrase, “The Patriots don’t rebuild, they reload” really only applied to the Brady-Bellichick era, but with the Pats Brady-less this is the closest we’ve been to a rebuild. Yet in Bill’s mind, I’d bet he figures he can make a winning team out of what he has. In a way, I could agree and if he does it’ll be a strong statement on his coaching career. It won’t be easy, but with the large roster he’s put together he definitely has a lot of talent to work with. Currently there are 87 men on the roster (as of May 18th), including the retired Patrick Chung and not including FB Jakob Johnson. A lot of traction online has been about trying to whittle down this roster to 53 men. I believe I did a solid job, trying to match what kind of system I think Bill wants to run along with the talent this roster provides. Quick side note, Cameron McGrone will not be on this due to him being placed on IR. So without further ado here is my 53-Man Roster prediction for the New England Patriots TRADES Stephon Gilmore: Trading Gilmore only makes sense, as he is getting older but still has a lot of gas left. We can shop him around for picks or players, he still has value. Possible acquisitions for Gilmore: 2nd Round, 3rd Round, WR2/WR3. Sony Michel: Michel is a player that I feel we can only get picks for, he has shown flashes but with the acquisitions of Taylor and Stevenson and the emergence of Harris, he is expendable. Possible acquisitions for Michel: 2nd Round, 3rd Round, 4th Round. N’Keal Harry: N’Keal Harry seems to be a major bargaining chip with Julio Jones showing interest. If we don’t trade him, expect him to make the roster, otherwise look at him to be shopped out with a 3rd or 2nd rounder. Possible acquisitions for Harry: Julio Jones, 3rd Round Pick, 4th Round Pick. QUARTERBACK Cam Newton: The clear QB1 going into 2021, despite 1st round pick Mac Jones being there. I think Newton will play a majority of snaps, start all games, while Jones develops in the background. It’s going to be interesting to see if Newton can bounce back from a dismal 2020 season, especially with the talent brought in around him. Mac Jones: Not much to say here, we drafted him at 15 overall, so he’s a for sure lock to make the roster. Unless Stidham balls out in the off-season and maybe in preseason, expect Jones to lock up the QB2 spot. Jarrett Stidham: I don’t see Brian Hoyer as a threat to Stidham, in fact I’d be willing to bet Hoyer turns into a QB coach before he takes another snap as a Patriots QB. Stidham has shown a few flashes of potential, with Hoyer back and competition with Jones, I’m hoping Stidham can push himself to a new level. RUNNING BACK James White: Dodged a bullet there when he hit free agency, as there was a moment of time when he didn’t sign with us. With White back he will be rotating in and out of the RB1 slot like he always has, being utilized as a receiving back. It also helps to have a talented vet like White to help some of the rookies. Damien Harris: Harris showed up in 2020, becoming a bright spot on a team that showed a lot of flaws. While he didn’t run wild, he did show major improvement as a power back. Expect him to be a 3rd down back, and see him a lot on the goal line. Rhamondre Stevenson: Our 4th round pick is another drafted player that has a lock on a roster spot. Despite my protests of wanting to take a wideout here, Rhamondre does show a lot of upside. With Harris emerging as a powerback, there is potential to create a two headed powerback beast. Brandon Bolden: Another pass catching vet, pairing him with White adds some depth to our receivers. He has good speed down the field, and really good hands. With Burkhead gone Bolden should fit into his usual role nicely. JJ Taylor: A little bit of a shocker, since Michel seems like a lock, but it makes more sense to go with an unproven back with little to no value. Why? Because you can gain capital by trading Michel while continuing to develop Taylor. He seems to be more of an elusive back, with good speed and acceleration, so he will be a unique weapon in the Patriots backfield. FULL BACK Jakob Johnson: Easy decision, Johnson seems a better fit than Vitale. Johnson can block, catch, and financially he seems willing to work with the organization to stay with the team. As long as he can beat out Danny Vitale in the offseason, the role is locked up for him. WIDE RECEIVER Nelson Agholor: It’s hard to determine who is WR1 as of right now, but with the money we spent on Agholor he is a sure fire lock. Coming off an amazing season with the Raiders, I believe there is still good football left in him. If we can spread the ball around, keeping the eyes off Agholor, he will be dangerous. Kendrick Bourne: Another free agency pick up, and competitor for WR1, similar to Agholor he is a lock based on what we spent. Though it is possible he can fit nice in the WR2 position to keep the eyes of our WR1, don’t be too surprised if he wins the starting role. Jakobi Meyers: Meyers showed up all season long last year, and we as a fan base are grateful for it. With Edelman gone, one could argue that Meyers fits in nicely where Edelman once stood, the reliable go to guy on the offense. He can run the wildcat, he can play in the slot, he can stretch the field, not stand out at every aspect but good at a lot of it. N'Keal Harry/Julio Jones: This position is very much up in the air at the moment. IF Harry is traded for Jones, then obviously Jones is a lock, full stop. If we keep Harry, he’s a lock. Why? Despite his previous play, he is still developing, and I’m sure Belichick wants to develop him into a deep threat. Gunner Olszewski: Another guy that is stepping into the Edelman role, mainly at return man. However, Olszewski can become the main slot guy with his speed. I can see him sharing roles with Meyers, but due to Meyers swiss-army play style and our newly added depth at the position, Olszewski may see most of his time on special teams with less snaps on offense. Tre Nixon: This pick is more of a respect pick. Ernie Adams last pick for the organization means that Belichick is going to want to utilize Nixon in any way possible. Whether it be special teams or on the offense, I’d expect to see Nixon make the roster due to his talent and the trust Belichick has in Adams’ insight. TIGHT END Hunter Henry: A top rated tight end falls into the Patriots lap in free agency, of course he has a locked spot on the roster. The real question is whether or not Hunter Henry is going to be TE1, there is competition with Jonnu Smith for the starting role. Either way Henry will be on the field for a majority of snaps because he is the kind of tight end Belichick loves. Jonnu Smith: Another top quality tight end falls into the Patriots lap, so naturally he is going to be a lock. Smith and Henry as a duo is deadly, they will be competing for starts but when they share the field, keep your eyes on them. The acquisition of the two brings depth to our blocking and receiving game. Dalton Keene: Keene offers good hands but excellent blocking skills. We can keep Devin Asiasi on the practice squad, let him develop into a better possession tight end. Keene offers up quality to our run game, as we can run with two blockers in the back field to protect our running back. OFFENSIVE LINE (Tackle) Isaiah Wynn, Trent Brown: With the return of Trent Brown, our exterior line is looking real secure. Wynn has always been a top quality lineman, pairing him with Brown who knows our system already, it’s no shock to me that they have roster spots locked up. (Guard) Michael Onwenu, Shaq Mason: The biggest surprise of the 2020 season was the former 6ht rounder Onwenu stepping up big. Onwenu’s play made Joe Thuney expendable, so naturally he is a lock. Mason has been a different breed of guard for the Patriots, with surprising speed to match his strength. (Center) David Andrews: Another scare in free agency, we feared we almost lost our center. But Andrews showed his loyalty by returning, talking about how comfortable and happy he felt in our system. Players that enjoy where they play, play better. (Flex) Justin Herron, Ted Karras: A lot of depth on the O-Line lets us keep some players on the practice squad, like William Sherman. We still have backups to plug up any holes that may appear and that is exactly what Herron and Karras can provide. They have experience at guard, tackle, and Karras has experience with center. DEFENSIVE LINE (Defensive End) Henry Anderson, Deatrich Wise. Jr, Chase Winovich, Ronnie Perkins: It’s interesting the way Bill’s defense works, since one can make the argument that a lot of our outside linebackers can be defensive ends and vice versa. Winovich and Wise are returning studs, having already known the system and performed very well in it, so they can lock it up with ease. Anderson and Perkins are new on the block, but Anderson is a vet so he should beat out the competition easily. Perkins is the rookie and will have to fend off Tashawn Bower, Nick Thurman, Byron Cowert, Akeem Spence, Bill Murray, and Carl Davis. I believe the young athletic defensive end can win himself a spot on the d-line. (Defensive Tackle) Montravius Adams, Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy: Similarly to the defensive ends, the defensive tackles can be swapped with the defensive ends and vice versa. Lawrence Guy has a spot locked up for being a returning vet and I see Adams and Godchaux beating out the competition to emerge to the top. The best draft pick for the Patriots, in my opinion, Christian Barmore will for sure make the roster to question. Our D-Line is bursting with talent, and to me these four stand out amongst the pack. LINEBACKERS Dont’a Hightower: No shocker here, our star guy sat out the 2020 season with an opt-out. There is some question as to how well he will play after missing an entire season, by choice, but to me he still has gas in the tank. Sure he’s 32, but he is the captain of this team, so expect to see him make the final roster. Matthew Judon: Another VERY exciting acquisition in free agency, there is no doubt Judon will make an immediate impact on this team. He can play DE, LB, with such versatility. I’d keep him for his talent and for the young guys to watch as well, match his and Hightower’s game. Kyle Van Noy: Welcome back KVN, here’s your complimentary roster spot and your old jersey if you want it. Releasing KVN was a good move, bringing him back was a better one. We needed that veteran presence who knows the play book, that underdog LB who no one really watches out for. He’s good competition for Uche, Jennings, and Bently. He’ll obviously fit in nicely with the system and his presence will drive the other LB’s to work harder. Josh Uche: I was a bit iffy on Uche as a prospect, he just seemed like another prototypical Belichick LB. That necessarily isn’t a bad thing, but hearing him talk about the game and how he approaches it, as well as who he has been studying, makes me realize this guy might be more. He’s still young, but if he breaks out this season and is sponge for knowledge like he seems, expect him to be a leader in the future. Anfernee Jennings: Similarly to Uche, he didn’t seem unique at first. I still have my doubts, but having depth at the linebacker is a feature of the Belichick system I love. Jennings, as of right now, is a solid piece to move around and while he is still young I have faith he’ll develop along with Uche nicely. Ja'Whaun Bently: Because McGrone is on IR, the competition for Bently is softened a bit. He seems like a nice inside linebacker that can get to the backfield while also covering most tight ends effectively. While I don’t see him sharing snaps with Hightower, don’t be surprised if and when he sees the field. DEFENSIVE BACK JC Jackson: The real tragedy with Jackson is the fact that we haven’t extended him. I guess Bill wants to see if he can have a repeat year from last year, which I believe he will. I have him stepping up into that CB1 role, with the ability to lock down most wide receivers effectively. Pay the man, he has talent. Jonathan Jones: An unsung hero in the secondary, Jonathan Jones is why we have so much depth. When Gilmore and J-Mac were above him, he was a silent contributor. Not too flashy, not too loud, but useful nonetheless. In this situation with Gilmore gone, I see him taking a big step and making his presence known. Joejuan Williams: Williams is interesting because he was often overshadowed last year, but still being young he can develop if pushed and put into a bigger role. The many hungry defensive backs on the roster will certainly help push him there, and he should fit nicely into Bill’s system. Jallen Mills: The Green Goblin, now a Patriot, most see him in the safety position but I think he’ll be used more in coverage. He can go both ways, so it’s going to be fun to see what kind of packages Belichick and co. come up with. Mills seems like the kind of guy you can plug in anywhere in the secondary. Devin McCourty: I mean, come on now. D-Mac has been the staple of the Pats secondary since he got the job at safety. He is a Patriot for life, and his roster spot will always be locked until he can’t play anymore. Joshua Bledsoe: An unsurprising pick for them, as they need to prepare for the future without D-Mac. I’d see Bledsoe making contributions on special teams and backing up McCourty as well. But it wouldn’t shock me to see him get playing time even in a backup role, Belichick loves getting creative on defense. Adrian Phillips: His starting spot at strong safety isn’t guaranteed but Phillips can rest well knowing his spot is locked in my eyes. With a hard hitting defensive back, Phillips can also double as a linebacker if needed. He is a good challenge for Kyle Dugger, giving the young DB something to overcome. Kyle Dugger: Patrick Chung he is not…..yet. Dugger wearing Chung’s number is a sign of respect to him as well as receiving Chung’s blessing. If Rodney Harrison believes in Dugger than I do too. The kid showed a lot of talent, so I’m willing to bet he locks up a roster spot and quite realistically wins the starting strong safety gig over Phillips. SPECIAL TEAMS (PK) Nick Folk: I don’t know what our place kicking competition will look like, but the safest bet is Folk. Roberto Aguayo showed me everything I needed to see in Tampa Bay. Quinn Nordin will give Folk a run for his money though, but I see the veteran taking the spot while Nordin is signed to the practice squad. (P) Jake Bailey: One of the few Patriots 2020 Pro Bowlers, of course he is a lock. The dude has a warhammer for a leg, hitting the ball into oblivion. Much like the majority of NFL fans, I didn’t care for punters. But thanks to Pat Mcafee, I am now a huge fan of Jake Bailey. (ST) Matthew Slater, Brandon King, Cody Davis: Our special team players may see very little time on any other side of the field. Matthew Slater returns, a team captain and leader of the special teams side. He has the intellect and leader mentality to command a very strong unit. Cody Davis and Brandon King, both members of that unit, play smart and safe football. These guys are what make our special teams so special. This is my final roster prediction as well as any trades I see happening. Let me know what you think, as well as any questions. I may or may not release a practice squad prediction as well in the future.
In this inaugural article, I wanna do something a bit unorthodox and tear apart my favorite team's draft history. Yes, I am a New England Patriots fan but that doesn't mean I'm going to lick their boots. According to champsorchumps.us Since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000, the Patriots have gone 244-92 and they've made the playoffs 17 times in those 21 seasons. In those 17 playoff appearances, they've appeared in 9 Super Bowls winning 6. So naturally they draft in the bottom half of the first round a lot. Going 7-9 puts them in the Top 15, only three other times have they had that luxury (2008, 2003, and 2001). So I want to take a look at their draft history since Belichick took over and look at their poor drafting and explain why it isn't all that shocking.
The way the Patriots have looked at the first round has always been filling rolls, not needs. Daniel Graham is a good example of this, in 2002 they selected the TE from Colorado 21st overall. From 2002-2006 he recorded 1,393 yards, 17 TDs, with a Catch % of 62.2% (not including drops). Two picks later? Ed Reed was picked. But at the time we didn't need Ed Reed, we needed someone that could block and catch. Daniel Graham was a role player who, thanks in part to Brady, is hard to consider a true draft bust. But that is precisely where all the Patriots drafting issues come back too, when we had Brady we didn't really need to draft well. The Patriots just needed to draft good enough to keep the ship stable, our best Drafts by far were back to back 2009-2010. Those two years not only did we keep the ship stable but we selected corner stones to our future Super Bowl teams in Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastian Volmer, and Brandon Spikes. For the most part though, we've whiffed majorly on picks, ESPECIALLY in later rounds. We've drafted more WR's than any other Offensive position, and most of them are off the team in two years. On the other side of the ball we draft DB's, not just the most out of Defensive positions but out of all positions, and most of them don't pan out either. Of our WR's and DB's, 35% of those WR's were successful and 37% of those DB's were successful. Out of the 186 players the Patriots drafted, 118 either didn't play for them or didn't last longer than 2-3 years on the Patriots. That's a 63% turnover rate, to put that in some context, it is more likely that the Patriots will draft a player that won't contribute or last than it is for the New York Jets to win a game (45% win percentage since 2000). So clearly our scout team isn't top notch, at least not nearly as good as Bleacher Report's top 5 teams that dominated the draft (Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, Green Bay, and San Diego/LA). So how come we draft so poorly, yet win so much? Simple, aside from the 7 years of spygate and some lucky calls, we had the best Quarterback in the league and have the best coach in the league. Some positions we've lacked? Only two 1,000 yard rushers (Steven Ridley in 2012 and Corey Dillon in 2004), 3 Receiving yard leaders (Randy Moss in 2007 and 2009, Wes Welker in 2009, 2011 and 2012, and Rob Gronkowski in 2011). Of all those years? Only 1 Superbowl in 2004, which means we won 5 Superbowls with Good-Average wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. All of the Patriots' Superbowls were powered by three things, a top 10 defense (we had in all years they won a Super Bowl), Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick. If there ever was a year to show we can draft well, it's 2021. |